UK Food Supply and Demand Model

This is a simple supply and demand model for UK food commodities. The model simulates market equilibrium for various food products over multiple time periods.

Features

• Simulates 11 different food commodities
• Each time period represents 10 years
• Models domestic demand, export demand, domestic supply, and import supply
• Supports price shocks and market interventions
• Visualizes results with matplotlib

Commodities

• beef
• sheepmeat
• pigmeat
• poultrymeat
• butter
• cheese
• wheat (feed)
• wheat (food)
• barley (feed)
• barley (food)
• OSR (crush)

Installation

1. Create a virtual environment (recommended):

python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate  # On Windows: .venv\Scripts\activate

2. Install dependencies:

pip install -r requirements.txt

Usage

The model can be used in two ways:

1. Run the example script:

python example.py

2. Use the model in your own code:

from food_model import FoodModel

# Create model with 5 periods (50 years)
model = FoodModel(num_periods=5)

# Run baseline scenario
model.run_model()

# Add a shock (e.g., 10% increase in domestic demand for beef)
model.add_shock('domestic_demand', 'beef', 0.1)

# Run model again with shock
model.run_model()

# Get results
results = model.get_results()

Model Structure

The model uses log-linear supply and demand functions with price elasticities. Market equilibrium is found by solving for the price that equates total demand (domestic + export) with total supply (domestic + import).

Results

The model outputs time series for:

• Prices
• Domestic demand
• Export demand
• Domestic supply
• Import supply

Results are stored in pandas DataFrames and can be accessed through the get_results() method.